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Analyst expects modest yield changes in October USDA report

A market analyst says he’s expecting modest changes to corn and soybean yield estimates in USDA’s October supply and demand report.

Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says the corn yield is expected to move lower, while the soybean yield could be steady to slightly higher.

“There’s some quality and color issues out there. The limiting factors out there for soybean yield are the same for corn: the flatter and more fertile the ground was, there’s a little more yield drag versus rolling ground was able to drain better and provide better numbers.”

Last month, the USDA estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 52.8 bushels/acre and corn yield at 178.5 bushels/acre. Hudson says the extent of the corn yield reductions in Friday’s report will dictate how the markets respond.

“If Iowa and Minnesota yields flop and can’t buoy the national average, that’s where we see the potential for a final yield under 175 bushels per acre, and we may need to see more field results and objective data before we could see a number like that in November.”

The USDA’s October Supply and Demand report will be released Friday at noon eastern, 11 a.m. central.