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CONAB trims Brazil soybean guess slightly, record crop still likely

Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA made minor month-to-month adjustments to its soybean and corn crop estimates.

CONAB trimmed soybeans 0.6% from December to 176.124 million tons on a dip in acreage, but that’s still expected to be up 2.7% on the year and record large. That all-time high for Brazil’s bean crop is expected to mean more export competition for the U.S.

Total corn production was a little bit below last month and could fall 1.5% from a year ago to a still large 138.867 million tons. There were no changes to Brazil’s second crop, the largest of the three and the source of most of their exports, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. That second crop estimate held at 110.461 million tons, which would be 2.4% below last year, while the first crop is pegged at 25.895 million tons, potentially up 3.8% with harvest underway, and the third crop is seen at 2.511 million tons, a decline of 12.6%.

CONAB says Brazil’s domestic corn consumption should rise because of the government’s plan to boost corn-based ethanol production.

Cotton and rice production projections were also down on the month.

CONAB’s next update for Brazil’s crops is out February 12^th.