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How Delta’s prevent plant scenario affects U.S. production

A market analyst says widespread prevent plant in the Delta will affect U.S. crop production, but it won’t likely be a major grain market mover.

Jody Lawrence with Strategic Trading Advisors says it’s hard to quantify exactly how many acres of prevent plant there are in the Delta, but…

“What we hear, and we won’t know this until the June acreage report, but there’s probably going to be somewhere between 200,000 to 300,000 acres that have an opportunity to be prevent plant.”

Planting has been delayed across the Delta due to excessive rains and flooding this spring. A crop insurance agent and farmers across the region tells Brownfield there will be prevent plant corn, cotton and rice.

Lawrence tells Brownfield the small percentage of prevent plant acres will start to chip away at U.S. ending stocks.

“Any loss of production basically moves the floor, the harvest low type price, where if everything goes well, it raises that a little bit.”

He says farmers don’t grow a crop to take prevent plant insurance, but “in a financially stressful time like it is right now for all crops, it gives them a choice that in most years they don’t want to make.”

Lawrence says any new trade deal or summer weather scare would have a greater impact on commodity prices moving forward.