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U.S. grain exports face questions on key markets

A grains and oilseeds analyst says there’s uncertainty about the future of some ag exports.

Bree Baatz with Terrain says China appears to be on track to meet its 25 million metric ton goal, but “There’s this commitment of $17 billion of non-soybean goods that China is supposed to buy. Thus far, I’ve only seen a little sorghum sales. There hasn’t been any new crop corn or wheat, and I think the market is waiting for that. If we see some additional export sale activities, non-soybean-related to China, I think that will be supportive of prices as well.”

She says corn exports are behind last year’s pace partly due to lack of purchases by Mexico. “Their domestic availability for supply is restricted. There could be some geopolitical things happening with USMCA and trade. At the end of the day, people and animals need to eat, and Mexico is going to come to their closest and cheapest supplier, which is their northern neighbor, us.”   

Baatz says there are concerns that trade tensions between U.S. and Canda could also have an impact. Kelly Brunkhorst with Nebraska Corn says losing access in the largest ethanol market would be a missed opportunity. “As you think about the America’s, transporting goods and services across borders is seamless. USMCA really brought us into the 21^st century for trade.”

Brunkhorst says if the relationship can stabilize there’s an opportunity to increase exports since Canada is considering higher blends.

Bree Baatz: