News
USDA cotton, rice guesses decline on acreage
The USDA’s 2026 upland cotton and rice crop estimates are lower than last month.
Rice production was lowered 211 million hundredweight to 158.18 million as cuts to planted and harvested area, now at 2.102 million and 2.057 million acres, respectively, canceled out a higher yield guess, now at 7,690 pounds per hundredweight.
In 2025, rice production was 206.707 million hundredweight with an average yield of 7,544 pounds per acre on planted area of 2.812 million acres and harvested area of 2.74 million acres.
Upland cotton is pegged at 12.809 million bales, a drop of 400 million on lower yield and acreage numbers, now at 766 pounds per acre on yield, 10.306 million acres for planted area and 8.028 million acres for harvested area. Cottonseed production is also expected to be below last year.
Last year, upland cotton production was 13.492 million bales with an average yield of 842 pounds per acre on planted area of 9.141 million acres and harvested area of 7.689 million acres.
Harvest is underway for both crops.
New crop U.S. rice stocks were 4.4 million hundredweight higher at 40.4 million due some old crop adjustments, while the domestic new crop cotton carryout was down 400,000 bales to 3.6 million with smaller beginning stocks, that reduction in production, and slower domestic demand.
The average 2026/27 farm price for rice is estimated at $14.90 per hundredweight, compared to $14.90 in August and $12.40 for 2025/26. The average 2026/27 farm price for upland cottton is estimated at $.78 per pound, compared to $.75 last month and $.62 last marketing year.
The new marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.
The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production projections is out October 9th.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Cotton: 1.5 million bales, compared to 1.329 million in 2025; Average Yield: 1,297 pounds per acre, compared to 1,341 a month ago and 1,239 a year ago; Planted Area: 560,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year; Harvested Area: 555,000 acres, compared to 515,000 the year before
Rice: 66.45 million hundredweight, compared to 93.449 million in 2025; Average Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,450 a month ago and 7,480 a year ago; Planted Area: 901,000 acres, compared to 1.284 million last year; Harvested Area: 886,000 acres, compared to 1.25 million the year before
Kansas: Cotton: 130,000 bales, compared to 155,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 810 pounds per acre, compared to 960 a month ago and 966 a year ago; Planted Area: 87,000 acres, compared to 102,000 last year; Harvested Area: 77,000 acres, unchanged from the year before
Missouri: Cotton: 870,000 bales, compared to 768,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,369 pounds per acre, compared to 1,363 a month ago and 1,084 a year ago; Planted Area: 315,000 acres, compared to 355,000 last year; Harvested Area: 305,000 acres, compared to 340,000 the year before
Rice: 8.848 million hundredweight, compared to 15.867 million in 2025; Average Yield: 7,900 pounds per acre, compared to 8,000 a month ago and 7,630 a year ago; Planted Area: 118,000 acres, compared to 213,000 last year; Harvested Area: 112,000 acres, compared to 208,000 the year before
Tennessee: Cotton: 380,000 bales, compared to 352,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 960 pounds per acre, compared to 1,036 a month ago and 889 a year ago; Planted Area: 195,000 acres, compared to 205,000 last year; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, unchanged from the year before
Add Comment