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Widespread USDA farm program payments expected in October

An ag economist says widespread USDA farm program payments are expected for crop farmers beginning next month.

David Widmar with Ag Economic Insights tells Brownfield farmers will receive the higher payment from either the Ag Risk Coverage program or Price Loss Coverage program.

“In some cases, you might be getting a soybean ARC program, and then you might switch over, getting a PLC payment for wheat,” he says.

Widmar says USDA will automatically make the determination. Where yields were weak in 2025, he says ARC payments could be substantial.

“Southern Illinois, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, and parts of southern Indiana and Ohio. That’s where we saw some pretty weak yields. Those are going to be big ARC payments that are going to be made. We’ve made some preliminary estimates—those could be more than $50 or even more than $60 an acre.”

There are parts of the Corn Belt expected to get PLC payments.

“If you start thinking about the Great Plains, where they probably had relatively better yields, and they’re not going to benefit from big ARC payments, but they’re going to see those potential PLC payments.”

It’s also the first year the higher reference prices will be factored into farm program payments. Widmar says he’s expecting that to make a difference.

“PLC for soybeans, previous to these higher reference prices, never made a payment. We’re starting to see the opportunity for maybe some PLC payments here this upcoming year.”

He says these farm program payments can boost cash flow and improve farm finances, but farmers should distinguish the assistance tied to last year’s crop from income generated in 2026.