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There will be a Senate Farm Bill

I’ve been taking an informal poll of folks in the know in DC when it comes to ag politics. The question is simple: Do you think Congress will send the President a Farm Bill early in 2008?

So far, the vote is pretty much split 50-50, with far more noise coming from those who believe the Farm Bill is drawing its last breaths. But I think the big noise makers are also the kind of folks who are disappointed to learn that when you fell down last winter, you only sprained your wrist. A broken arm makes a much better story.

I have never doubted the Senate would finish its Farm Bill. It was always when, not if. I’m convinced there will be Solomon-like compromise developed next week that will allow the bill to hit the floor early the week of December 3, amendments — though limited in number and scope — will be heard, debated and voted upon and the full Senate will complete a Farm Bill if not by that first week in December, certainly by the beginning of the following week.

A senior Senate staffer — GOP, by the way — said the challenge isn’t getting a bill through the Senate, it’s being able to successfully conference the bill with the House, given how far the Senate has gone in its various program expansion, development and so forth. There’s really very little that’s similar in the two bills. However, that’s always the challenge and some how we always get to the finish line, though not without a few bruised and battered conferees and their staffs.

The big challenge, as I see it, is how to pay for the package once it’s been put together. The House Ways & Means Committee’s bill on offsets bears no resemblance to the Senate Finance Committee’s bill that seeks to do the same thing, namely raise money to pay for new programs.

The House wants the bulk of the new money to come from imposing a tax on the U.S. subsidiaries of foreign-owned corporations, along with removing some breaks oil companies get for offshore oil exploration and pumping. The Senate said early on it would not accept such a plan. On the Senate side, its package is built up on a $5-6-billion permanent disaster program, an activity that gets only passing mention in the entire House Farm Bill.

Some speculate Sen. Tom Harkin (D, IA), chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, who will be the “host” of this Farm Bill conference, is ambivalent about the 2007 Farm Bill. It’s not the kind of bill he would have written if left to his own devices, and the politics of forcing a White House veto of omnibus farm legislation — a bill that also carries federal food stamp and nutrition program authorization — may prove too tempting as the Democrats try and solidify their hold on Congress — and possibly the White House — come November, 2008.