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Analysts see slightly smaller wheat crop

USDA’s 2011 wheat production update is out Friday with most analysts expecting a slight decrease in the production estimate.

The average guess is 2.046 billion bushels, compared to USDA’s August guess of 2.077 billion bushels and the year ago total of 2.208 billion. Estimates range from 2.007 billion to 2.084 billion bushels.

Winter wheat is projected at 1.495 billion bushels with hard red at 791 million, soft red at 453 million, and white winter at 251 million bushels.

Spring wheat is expected to total 551 million bushels, with 53 million of that durum and the remaining 498 million “other” spring wheat.

Overall, the U.S. wheat crop has had a very trying growing year due to drought in the Southern Plains, wet weather around the soft red winter region, and very wet conditions in the Northern Plains.

The numbers are out Friday at 7:30 AM Central.