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Price and acreage projections from USDA chief economist

The USDA’s chief economist says expanding stocks of wheat and soybeans and tightening global corn stocks will be the major influencers to commodity prices this year.

Rob Johansson says look for soybean prices to rise despite tariffs.  “Those prices are projected to be $.20 per bushel higher at $8.80 per bushel,” he says.  “Corn is projected up at nickel to $3.65 per bushel.  That’s a second year of price increases as carryout stocks are expected to continue their tightening.  And wheat prices are expected up at nickel as well to $5.20 per bushel.”

He says prices will influence planting intentions.  “As a result of soybean prices relative to corn we expect soybean planted area to drop by 4.2 million acres to 85 million acres,” he says.  “The three-crop total for corn, soybeans, and wheat for 2019/20 is expected to contract modestly.  Falling from 226.1 million acres to 224 million acres.”  

He says corn is expected to gain almost 3 million acres – up to 92 million acres, the largest since 2016. 

Johansson gave his projections at the USDA’s 95^th Ag Outlook Forum in Washington, DC on Thursday.