Market News

Firm finish for corn, with soybeans, wheat mixed

Soybeans were mostly lower, adjusting spreads. Contracts were down for most of the day on the profit taking losses in soybean and palm oils, but far off deferred contracts did finish firm. That far off firmness can be linked to some very early expectations for lower planted area in parts of Brazil next growing season. Brazil’s harvest is entering the final stages in many key growing areas, while Argentina’s is getting close to really ramping up. Meal was supported by oversold signals, product spread trade, and a week-to-week improvement in export sales. Mexico bought 152,404 tons of 2023/24 U.S. beans ahead of the open, while old crop was down on the week. The top purchasers were China and Egypt, but there was a big cancelation by unknown destinations. Brazil continues to hold a near-term price advantage on the export market, while the bigger crop in Argentina has had an impact on global demand for U.S. soybean products. ANEC projects Brazil’s April 2024 soybean exports at 10.56 million tons, compared to 14 million in April 2023.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. The trade is monitoring second crop development weather in Brazil and planting conditions in the U.S. In Brazil, there are concerns about the impact of a drier pattern on some of that key second crop, while stateside, the current wetter, cooler pattern in much of the Corn Belt is expected to generally give way to drier weather, which would help the planting pace. Export sales were below a week ago, but the overall pace remains ahead of expectations. The big 2023/24 buyers were Japan and Mexico, but there was a significant cancelation by unknown destinations. Light 2024/25 sales were to Mexico. The RFA says February ethanol exports were 139 million gallons, down 7% from January, with Canada taking the top slot for the 35^th month in a row, followed by the United Kingdom, Colombia, India, and the European Union, while DDGS exports of 986,337 tons were up 9% on the month, mostly to Mexico.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City continue to watch winter wheat development conditions, while Minneapolis was up on an oversold bounce, started after establishing a contract low Wednesday. Potential trade disruptions in the Black Sea region are ongoing as Russia and Ukraine attack each other’s infrastructure. Russia’s wheat prices have moved higher, which might open up some opportunities for the U.S. Old crop U.S. export sales were dismal at 600,000 bushels as sales to China, Mexico, and a handful of others were partially offset by cancelations led by South Korea and unknown destinations. New crop sales were a little more robust, with South Korea and the Philippines topping that list. In the final quarter of 2023/24, the pace remains slower than 2022/23, but still on track to come close to or even meet USDA expectations. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 11^th.