Market News

Soybeans, corn both finish firm

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. 85% of the U.S. soybean crop has been harvested, faster than average, with a drier, warmer forecast for much of the region, which should allow some of the top producing states to wrap up shortly. There’s rain in South America, including some already very wet areas of southern Brazil. Still, that part of the country may see a brief reprieve, while some of the drier areas of Brazil and Argentina are expected to see some much-needed precipitation. The USDA’s next round of supply, demand, and production numbers and CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil are both scheduled for November 9^th. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower, adjusting product spreads. Crush margins remain attractive, with monthly soybean crush numbers out Wednesday. Fire and heavy rain have delayed shipments out of a key port in Brazil, but activity is expected to fully resume this weekend.

Corn was modestly higher on fund and technical buying. 71% of U.S. corn is harvested and while there are some near-term delays, forecasts for later this week generally look more favorable in most of the Midwest and Plains. Weather in South America is mixed, too wet in some areas, too dry in others. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina estimates 2023/24 corn production at 53 million tons, down 2 million from the most recent official guess due to dry weather and some farmers switching to soybeans because of the better return. The FAS now has new crop corn exports for Argentina at 38 million tons, a decline of 3 million from the prior estimate. Still, that’s much better than the numbers for the drought stricken 2022/23 crop. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday, along with monthly corn for ethanol use data. Data from Brazil indicates strong October corn export shipments.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. The big bearish factor continues to be slow export demand, with Russia controlling most of the market. China has reportedly purchased wheat this week, but from Australia and France, not the U.S. That follows recent heavy, crop-damaging rainfall in parts of China. Early expectations are for China to buy a record amount of wheat this marketing year. Ukraine is still shipping grain, just at lower levels, but with movement out of some key ports resuming after short delays. The USDA’s first condition rating of the season for winter wheat was above a year ago and the highest initial rating in a few years. Planting and emergence are both close to normal. The quarterly wheat grind report is out Wednesday. The USDA’s attaché in Argentina pegs 2023/24 production at 14.5 million tons, down 2 million from the last supply and demand report because of widespread dry conditions, with exports of 10 million tons, a cut of 1.5 million from the previous projection.