Market News

Soybeans, corn end final 2023 trading day in the red

Soybeans were lower on fund and technical selling, pulling contracts to a lower weekly close. Forecasts had an improved chance of near-term rainfall in some of the drier areas of Brazil. That’s going to boost prospects for some of the later planted beans, but it’s too late for part of the crop, with early harvest activity underway in some areas. Conditions in Argentina are much better than a year ago. Weekly export sales were bearish, down on the week and below average. The top buyers were China and the Netherlands, with a significant cancelation by unknown destinations. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads. Commodity markets are closed Monday for New Year’s.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling, ensuring a modestly lower weekly finish. Export sales topped 1.2 million tons, mainly to Mexico, with the pace well ahead of last marketing year. Colombia took the second slot and there were sales to China, most of which were switched from unknown destinations. The trade’s monitoring rain chances in Brazil and favorable conditions in Argentina. The big test for Brazil will be the second crop, which is planted after soybeans are harvested. The wildcard is the soybean planting delays, which would push back harvest activity and second crop corn planting, and some producers switched to other crops, like cotton, instead of planting beans. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil will be released January 4^th.

The wheat complex was mixed, but the most active months were up on the week. Recent precipitation in the U.S. Plains should boost winter wheat conditions heading into 2024, with more rain and snow in the forecast. Export demand has died down after the pop in sales to China, with Russia, and to some extent, Ukraine holding most of the market share. U.S. sales were below the prior week and under the four-week average, mainly to Mexico and unknown destinations, with no outright sales to China. There was also some new crop wheat sold to unknown. Really, if that demand from China changed anything for the U.S., it was significantly tightening the supply of soft red winter. In comparison, demand for hard red winter remains slack. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is set for January 12^th.