Market News

Soybeans, corn mixed Friday

Soybeans was mixed on bull spreading, with the most active months down on the week. There was periodic support from the higher move in bean oil, but nearby beans ran into overhead resistance again Friday, even as traders moved out of deferred months and into those contracts. That overhead resistance and reluctance to push May, July, and August was really the big story of the week. Domestic crush demand is solid, but exports continue to cast a pall over beans. Brazil’s harvest is moving forward, with new estimates from USDA and CONAB on the 11^th. Brazil’s Trade Ministry says soybean exports for March 2024 were 12.63 million tons, down 4.6% from March 2023. The gains in soybean oil were despite profit taking in palm oil, while meal was down on product spread trade and profit taking.

Corn was mixed on spread trade and profit taking, closing out the week in the red. It was an up and down day with some support from solid export and ethanol demand, as traders continued to watch early U.S. planting activity. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out Monday afternoon. Development conditions for second crop corn in Brazil are mixed. The big question seems to be timing of expected rainfall, with the potential for flooding in some areas. Brazil’s Trade Ministry says March 2024 corn exports were 431,000 tons, a drop of 67.7% on the year. Argentina’s corn harvest is close to getting underway in some areas.

The wheat complex was higher on commercial and technical buying, with the most active months ending this week mixed, when compared to last week. Quality issues linked to phytosanitary standards could have an impact on Russia’s exports, even if they do still have a price advantage, and parts of the Black Sea region are dry. That includes parts of Ukraine into southern Russia. France’s Ag Ministry says 65% of the soft wheat crop is in good to excellent shape, compared to 93% a year ago, with excessively wet conditions in issue in parts of western Europe, in contrast to those eastern European problems. Near-term U.S. hard red winter wheat weather looks warm and dry, which could cause some stress. The trade is also keeping an eye on early spring wheat planting activity in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada.