Market News
Soybeans, corn down on new USDA crop estimates
Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling. The USDA raised its yield and production estimates, when most analysts were expecting at least some decline. The new bean and production numbers do not fully reflect the impacts of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. New crop ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 475 million bushels, with a higher export estimate and lower 2016/17 ending stocks cancelling out the production increase. The 2016/17 price is seen at $9.50 with the 2017/18 range now at $8.35 to $10.05. New quarterly grain stocks, effectively the final word on 2016/17 ending stocks, are out on September 29th, and the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out October 12th. Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of 2017/18 U.S. soybeans. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower. USDA did increase its import estimates to China, now at 92 million tons for old crop and 95 million for new crop. New crop production projections for South America were unchanged and the USDA lowered its outlook for 2017/18 exports from Argentina. CONAB has Brazil’s 2016/17 soybean crop at 114 million tons, matching the USDA.
Corn was lower on commercial and technical selling. The USDA’s production, yield, and new crop ending stocks estimates were all above the August projections. 2017/18 ending stocks are now seen at 2.335 billion bushels, with the USDA lowering the ethanol demand guess, and 2016/17 ending stocks were pegged at 2.350 billion bushels. The average 2016/17 price is pegged at $3.35 per bushel with 2017/18 currently at $2.80 to $3.60. Near term forecasts for most of the Midwest and Plains generally look good for late development. Some key U.S. growing areas need warmer temperatures to speed up the slower than average pace of maturation. Ethanol futures were mostly lower. USDA upped its 2016/17 export outlook for Brazil, while leaving 2016/17 Argentina unchanged. 2017/18 corn exports from South America were steady, but expected to be below the previous marketing year. CONAB has Brazil’s combined corn crop at 97.71 million tons, a little bit less than the current USDA projection. Export outlooks for Ukraine were unchanged for 2016/17, up on the month for 2017/18.
The wheat complex was mostly higher with Chicago and Kansas City up on short covering and technical buying. 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks were steady on the month at 933 million bushels and while world ending stocks remain ample, they were lower than what many were expecting at 263.14 million tons. The 2017/18 global production projection was up a little, with higher expectations for Russia and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out a lower outlook for Australia. The USDA’s has Australia at 23.5 million tons, compared to ABARE’s new guess of 21.64 million. 2016/17 world ending stocks were up slightly from August. The spring wheat harvest is about to wrap up and winter wheat planting conditions mostly look good. Minneapolis was mixed, watching that spring wheat harvest activity. Japan is tendering for 139,382 tons of food wheat from the U.S., Australia, and Canada. CONAB has Brazil’s wheat crop at 5.22 million tons, in-line with the new USDA guess, with 2% of the crop harvested.
Tags: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Commodities, Corn, Crops, Ethanol, Exports, Grains/Oilseeds, Harvest, Japan, Planting, Russia, soybean meal, soybean oil, Soybeans, Ukraine, USDA, Wheat
Thanks for the Federal Crop check, Usda your so right on the yields, when is the Arc payment coming too. Thanks