Market News

Soybeans, corn up ahead of quarterly stocks data

Soybeans were modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Weekly export sales were at the high end of estimates and quarterly stocks numbers are out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central. Stocks are expected to be up on the year, but with solid fourth quarter demand. The trade is watching South American planting and U.S. harvest activity. Brazil’s record planting pace is could slow because of weather, there are uncertainties about acreage in Argentina, and rain in parts of the Midwest and Plains is expected to slow harvest in some areas down at least slightly. The International Grains Council estimates 2018/19 world soybean production at 370 million tons, up on both the month and the year. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange projects 2018/19 soybean exports for Argentina at 15.4 million tons.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. Weekly export sales were larger than anticipated and the trade expected the hogs and pigs report to imply continued strong domestic demand. Quarterly numbers Friday are expected to show a tighter than a year ago supply, with record demand for the 2017/18 marketing year. This number will serve as the initial total for 2017/18 ending stocks. Corn is also watching harvest activity, expecting at least minor near-term delays in some areas. The USDA says it will resurvey producers in North and South Carolina for the impact of Florence on several crops, including corn, soybeans, sorghum, and Upland cotton. Ethanol futures were higher. The International Grains Council projects 2018/19 world corn production at 1.074 billion tons, above July’s estimate.

The wheat complex was mostly lower, with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis steady to firm. Weekly export numbers were neutral to bearish and small grain productions numbers are out Friday. On average, analysts expect a slight year to year increase in wheat production, with a bigger spring crop cancelling out a smaller winter crop. The trade is monitoring the winter wheat planting paces in the U.S., Europe, and Black Sea region. Japan bought 49,470 tons of U.S. food wheat, along with 32,050 tons from Canada and 27,630 tons from Australia, while Iraq purchased 50,000 tons of wheat each from the U.S. and Australia, and the UDSA’s Commodity Credit Corporation picked up 59,470 tons of U.S. hard red winter for Ethiopia. The International Grains Council has 2018/19 world wheat production at 717 million tons, slightly higher than their last guess.