Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat end week on a higher note

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, padding the weekly gains and pulling January to a one-month high. Demand is solid and crush margins are bullish, which also supported soybean meal. The lower dollar was also broadly positive for grains and oilseeds. Soybean oil was up early, but unable to follow through as crude oil sold off. The trade is monitoring late U.S. harvest activity, along with conditions in South America. Parts of Argentina and Brazil have received some much-needed rainfall, but excessively wet conditions in southern Brazil are a concern. The USDA’s updated supply and demand outlook and new estimates for Brazil from CONAB are both out November 9^th. Unknown destinations bought 131,150 tons of U.S. beans Friday morning. That might turn out to the China when it’s time for delivery. There was talk Friday of China buying U.S. soybeans outright, but no confirmation.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, while still closing mixed for the week. Near-term harvest conditions look mostly favorable, aside from rain showers in some areas. Much of the Corn Belt is expected to see a warmer temperatures over the near-term as well, which could allow some key states to wrap up harvest activity in short fashion. The USDA’s weekly crop progress and condition numbers are out at their usual time Monday afternoon. In South America, with the recent welcome rainfall in parts of Argentina and Brazil, the big concern for corn is soybean planting issues in southern Brazil, which could push second crop corn planting back. Ethanol margins are strong and export demand could see improvements soon as export prices against Brazil start to favor the U.S. later this month and early December. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its corn planted area estimate for Argentina unchanged.

The wheat complex was higher on short covering and technical buying, with the most active months at the three major pits narrowly mixed when compared to last week. Contracts remained oversold, but sustained support was limited by slow export demand as Russia continues to hold a price advantage. Ukraine is still exporting grain, just at lower amounts, and the recent rumored demand for U.S. wheat from China hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, the bulk of the announced purchases have been from Australia and France. U.S. winter wheat conditions are mixed, with rain in the forecast for some areas. Still, the crop’s in much better shape than this time last year ahead of widespread dormancy. The USDA’s attaché in Australia sees 2023/24 wheat production at 26.5 million tons, a little bit more than the official guess, but down from the 2022/23 record due to dry conditions in some key growing areas. Exports this marketing year are pegged at 18.5 million tons, compared to 32 million last marketing year. The USDA’s Canada office has the wheat crop at 31.058 million tons, slightly below the most recent official projection, and below the 2022/23 total of 34.335 million because of drought in the prairies. 2023/24 exports are estimated at 22 million tons, compared to 25.574 million for 2022/23. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered its outlook for Argentina’s crop to 15.4 million tons because of drought and frost damage. That’s still above the Rosario Grain Exchange’s guess of 14.3 million tons. 62% of France’s soft winter wheat crop is planted, slower than normal, but because of widespread rain delays.