Market News

Soybeans, corn, wheat stabilize

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying. The near-term supply remains tight and soybean products have also showed some strength so far this week. Still, beans moved down from the highs as gains in meal moderated and bean oil turned mixed. Soybean meal did finish higher, oversold, and bean oil was mixed on bull spreading. Most forecasts have continued weather improvements in South America, allowing for increased harvest activity in Brazil and helping to boost conditions in Argentina. Those harvest delays in Brazil have slowed down sales to China and have led to increased competition for shipping space with sugar at the key port of Santos. Rabobank did raise its production estimate for Brazil to 133 million tons, the same as the most recent USDA guess. The trade is also getting ready for what’s expected to be a bullish set of quarterly stocks numbers scheduled for the end of the month.

Corn was modestly higher on commercial and technical buying. Early U.S. planting progress is mixed, with more rain in the forecast for parts of the south and Delta. The USDA says planting says planting is ahead of average for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, while Arkansas is a little bit slower than normal. The USDA’s prospective planting numbers are out March 31^st. Ahead of the report, most analysts are projecting an increase in planted area in most states as producers try to meet demand. Corn is also watching weather in Argentina and Brazil. The faster soybean harvest pace in Brazil will help second crop corn planting pick up steam, and help the first corn harvest wrap up, while improved rainfall will benefit Argentina’s corn crop. Ethanol futures were unchanged. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and supply numbers are out Wednesday.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. Contracts are oversold, but winter wheat conditions continue to improve and the global supply outlook remains bearish, limiting gains. The USDA says recent precipitation boosted condition ratings in Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The USDA’s next set of state crop stories is out next week and regular, national crop progress and condition reports resume April 5^th. Parts of the northern Plains and Canada will need more rain ahead of spring wheat planting. The European Commission sees European Union soft wheat exports for 2020/21 as of March 21^st at 19.34 million tons, compared to 24.65 million tons a year ago. Ukraine’s Ministry of the Economy says grain exports since the start of the marketing year last July are 34.01 million tons, 23.4% behind the previous marketing year’s pace. The USDA’s attaché in Egypt estimates 2021/22 wheat imports at 13.2 million tons, compared to 13 million for 2020/21 and 12.811 million during 2019/20. Domestic production is expected to rise of 9 million tons next marketing year, which starts July 1^st. The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates, including international projections, is out April 9^th. DTN says Thailand is tendering for 430,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat, while South Korea is in the market for 35,000 tons of food wheat from the U.S. and/or Canada.