Market News

Soybeans down, waiting for news on China

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling. Contracts closed near the day’s lows ahead of any news out of a phone meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade representatives. The discussion reportedly centered around tariffs and the purchase of $20 billion worth of U.S. ag goods by Beijing if U.S. tariffs are lifted. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative was quoted as saying the two sides are close to finalizing some aspects of a limited trade agreement. President Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro is reportedly opposed to the as-of-yet unsigned “Phase One” of the trade deal, but with few allies. “Phase One” could be signed in mid-November. Beans were also watching U.S. harvest activity and South American planting, with some rain in the forecast for parts of Argentina and Brazil. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans.

Corn was unchanged to mostly fractionally lower. Weather forecasts look mixed into the coming week, with better harvest conditions in some areas than in others ahead of snow in parts of the Midwest. It’s been a long season for a lot of growers after the historically slow start to planting and widely variable weather from development through harvest, with the harvest pace the slowest in years. The upside is limited by the slow export demand, with competition from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. The USDA is expected to lower production, export, and corn for ethanol use estimates in the supply and demand update out November 8^th. Ethanol futures were steady to higher. The USDA says it will release selected tables for the Agricultural Projections to 2029 report early, on November 1^st, with the complete set of numbers out February 2020.

The wheat complex was mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were up on short covering, watching winter wheat planting and development weather, with emergence running at a normal pace, nationally. At least some of what’s left of the U.S. spring wheat crop might not be harvested, while Canada has mostly made good progress this week. There are also the quality concerns for the spring wheat crop. The USDA’s next crop progress and condition report is out Monday, October 28^th at 4 Eastern/3 Central. DTN says the Philippines bought “around” 165,000 tons of feed wheat “rumored” to be from Australia. Ethiopia, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey also have open wheat tenders according to DTN. The USDA’s export inspections report is due Monday at 11 AM Eastern/10 Central.