Market News

Soybeans hit multi-month lows

 

Soybeans were lower on commercial and technical selling, with July closing at a new three month low. The supply and demand report did have some bullish elements, but even if USDA didn’t change the old crop export estimate, China isn’t buying U.S. beans. The crush estimate was up as the U.S. is expected to fill at least some of the void left by Argentina’s crop loss. New crop stocks were lower than expected, but there’s a long way to go until the crop is made. The new marketing year for soybeans, and corn, gets underway September 1st. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher on the adjustment of product spreads. China’s Ministry of Agriculture projects domestic soybean production at 15.27 million tons, which would be up nearly 5% on the year.

Corn was lower on commercial and technical selling. Old crop corn ending stocks were unchanged, still ample, and new crop was below most pre-report estimates, but there’s a long way to go for corn. Most forecasts have generally good near-term planting conditions in many key U.S. growing areas, while many outlooks for the next week have more dry weather for Brazil’s second crop following some showers. Ethanol futures were weak. China’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates this year’s corn crop at 210 million tons, 3% below a year ago. France’s AgriMer reports 74% of that nation’s corn crop is planted, slower than average.

The wheat complex was lower on commercial and technical selling. The USDA supply and demand numbers reflected the bearish fundamental outlook, with an increase in old crop ending stocks and a higher than anticipated new crop projection. The 2018/19 marketing year for wheat starts June 1st. The winter wheat production estimate is expected to decline further because of drought or near drought conditions in the southern U.S. Plains, with the next set of supply, demand, and production numbers out June 12th. Still, that’s largely been overridden by the generally good world crop conditions. According to France’s AgriMer, 78% of that nation’s winter wheat crop is in good to excellent condition and 80% of durum is rated good to excellent.