Market News

Soybeans mixed, corn, wheat down, all still up on week

Soybeans were mixed, mostly lower, but closed solidly higher on the week. Soybeans adjusted spreads Friday, watching the weather, with some conflicts in the forecasts for late this month into early next month. Either way, August is the critical month for soybean development and any additional stress would impact yield. A lot will be riding on this next month of weather and even with the recent weather premium being added to the market, there could still be some upside if the more dire forecasts come to fruition. Soybean meal was mixed on bear spreading, while bean oil was up solidly on demand expectations.

Corn was lower on fund and technical selling, still ending the week with solid gains. Corn is monitoring development conditions, with some forecasts indicating more stress, while others look relatively mild. The past week’s trade did see some weather premium added to the market and general sentiment is that the USDA could trim a couple more bushels per acre off the yield projection in upcoming supply, demand, and production reports. The next set of estimates is out August 11^th. Estimates for Brazil’s second crop are rising, with harvest ongoing. That’s already impacted global demand for U.S. corn and is expected to continue to limit global demand into the U.S. harvest. However, the uncertain trade situation for Ukraine could send some business to the U.S. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 66% of Argentina’s corn crop is harvested, leaving their production guess 34 million tons.

The wheat complex was lower on profit taking and technical selling, while the most active months at the three U.S. pits closing firm to sharply higher. More stress on the spring wheat crop in parts of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada is possible, but that depends on which forecast you’re following. The trade is also monitoring winter wheat harvest activity, which has been slower than normal in some key U.S. growing areas. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is creating uncertainties for the export market. Both Russia and Ukraine have said any vessels entering the Black Sea towards either port could be regarded as hostile. Ukraine is exploring alternative export routes for grains and other goods following the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left its wheat planted area estimate for Argentina unchanged.