Market News

Soybeans see solid gains ahead of more China talks

Soybeans were sharply higher on fund and technical buying. There’s ongoing optimism ahead of Thursday’s trade meeting with China. Weekend talks apparently went well and there’s more talk that tariffs could be on the table in this round of face-to-face negotiations. Forecasts for this week have harvest delaying rain in some areas against drier conditions in other areas. The USDA says 58% of U.S. soybeans are in good to excellent shape, unchanged, with 62% of the crop dropping leaves and 12% harvested, both faster than average. Soybean meal and oil futures were up on demand expectations. Soybean export inspections were up on the week and the year, mainly to China and Mexico. The 2026/27 pace is now just ahead of 2025/26. Planting is underway in parts of Brazil.

Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Corn is watching harvest activity, expecting rain delays and potential quality concerns in parts of the region. As of Sunday, 57% of U.S. corn is in good to excellent condition, steady, and 92% is dented and 58% is mature, with 13% harvested, all ahead of the respective five-year averages. There’s some talk China could also buy U.S. corn soon. Cumulative Chinese corn imports are up sharply from last marketing year, but almost none of that has been, outright, sourced from the U.S. Traders are also watching very delayed 2025/26 harvest and early 2026/27 planting in Argentina, along with early first crop planting in Brazil. The USDA will update supply, demand, and production numbers October 9^th, while CONAB’s next look at Brazil’s crops will be out October 15^th. U.S. export inspections were larger than previous week and a year ago, headlined by Japan and Mexico. This marketing year’s pace has pulled ahead of last marketing year.

The wheat complex was higher on fund and technical buying. War continues to severely limit export movement out of the Black Sea for both Russia and Ukraine. There are chances for rain in the Central and Southern Plains this week. For winter wheat, 17% of the crop is planted and 2% has emerged, both behind most recent years due to recent rainfall. For spring wheat, 96% of the crop is harvested, matching the typical rate. The USDA will release the Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports September 30^th. U.S. export inspections were below last week and last year, mainly to Mexico and Vietnam. Despite the Black Sea export issues, global demand for U.S. wheat is slow at least partially because of relatively high prices. Traders are also monitoring Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Europe, in addition to movement out of and planting in Russia and Ukraine.