Market News

Soybeans up, corn down ahead of planting updates

Soybeans were modestly higher on fund and technical buying. Soybeans had some help from the strength in meal, while watching harvest activity in South America. Brazil’s harvest is nearing completion but slowing down, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 25% of Argentina’s crop is harvested, with both impacted by heavy rainfall. A big part of those Monday gains in soybean meal were due to a port strike in Argentina, protesting proposed governmental changes to taxes and labor, which will likely slowdown exports for the world’s largest exporter of soybean products. Still, while port strikes in South America can be frequent, they’re also usually brief. Stateside, the trade was expecting good planting progress, but weekend storms have caused some delays. The USDA says 18% of U.S. soybeans are planted, compared to the five-year average of 10%. Soybean oil was down on product spread adjustments, a lower move in crude oil, and the hefty competition on the global vegetable oils market. U.S. soybean export inspections were below last week and last year, continuing to run behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections. Indonesia and Japan were the top destinations, with less than 10,000 tons of beans leaving U.S. ports for China. Brazil largely remains in control of the global soybean market.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The trade expected corn planting to top 30%, with mixed progress depending on precipitation and soil temperatures. As of Sunday, 27% of U.S. corn is planted and 7% has emerged, both ahead of their respective averages. The next couple of weeks should be warmer and wetter in parts of the region. It remains to be seen if this pattern holds as much potential for severe weather as this past week’s system. The soil moisture recharging rainfall is expected to be a net positive for long-term development. Corn export inspections were down on the week and the year, while remaining ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s 2023/24 expectations. The primary destinations were Mexico and Japan. The final quarter of the current marketing year for corn, and soybeans, gets underway June 1^st. Cofco says it expects corn planting in northeastern China to decline with many farmers switching to soybeans. In South America, key second corn growing areas in central Brazil are expected to remain dry over the near-term, while harvest activity in Argentina is being delayed by rainy weather.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Kansas City down and Minneapolis up. That weekend rainfall missed some dry hard red winter areas in the southwestern Plains while dumping rain on some already wet parts of the soft red winter region. For winter wheat, 49% of the crop is good to excellent, compared to 50% a week ago and 28% a year ago, with 30% headed, compared to the normal rate of 21%. For spring wheat, 34% is planted, compared to the typical pace of 19%, and 5% has emerged, matching the five-year average. There’s rain in the forecast for dry portions of the northern U.S. Plains and Canada, along with Russia and Ukraine. Those Black Sea region nations remain two of the world’s leading exporters of wheat, despite the ongoing war. U.S. wheat export inspections improved from both the prior week and last year, with China and Taiwan topping the list. The new marketing year for wheat starts June 1^st.