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Weather outlook sends soybeans, corn mostly lower

Soybeans were mostly lower. There’s a better chance of rain over the next few days, but it will have to actually happen and could miss some areas. Rain forecasts are generally more favorable in July and August as El Nino starts to fully emerge. Soybean meal was lower and bean oil was higher, adjusting product spreads. ANEC sees Brazil’s June soybean exports at 14.76 million tons, compared to 13.11 million as recently as last week, with soybean meal exports at 2.45 million tons, compared to 2.27 million a week ago. The USDA’s weekly U.S. sales numbers are out Thursday morning. The NOPA’s member numbers for May are expected to the crush at 175.88 million bushels, down for the second consecutive month due to seasonal maintenance.

Corn was mostly lower. Corn is watching the weather and that potential for increased rainfall in parts of the Plains and Midwest into late June. However, that rain might not be enough to break drought conditions in some key growing areas. Brazil’s second crop harvest is ongoing with a limited frost/freeze risk in some areas. ANEC estimates Brazil’s corn exports for June at 1.59 million tons, slightly lower than last week’s guess. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says ethanol production last week averaged 1.018 million barrels a day, down 18,000 on the week and 42,000 on the year, with stocks of 22.226 million barrels, 722,000 less than a week ago and 971,000 below a year ago. Ethanol exports of 76,000 barrels a day were 21,000 below the prior week. The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out July 12th.

The wheat complex was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The winter wheat harvest is moving forward with dismal hard red winter results being reported in parts of the Plains. Early anecdotal soft red winter numbers are comparatively good. There is some needed rain in the forecast for parts of the spring wheat region in the northern U.S. Plains and Canada. Conditions for wheat in Russia have generally turned favorable, while there are continued concerns about production in Ukraine, Argentina, and Europe. The European Commission says E.U. soft wheat exports since the start of the marketing year on July 1st, 2022 are 30 million tons, compared to 26.5 million this time last year.

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