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2020 could be the turn of the shrinking ag trade surplus

The USDA projects the shrinking US ag trade surplus to grow slightly in 2020.

Kamron Daugherty is an ag economist with the Economic Research Service. He tells Brownfield this year the ag trade surplus was the lowest in more than a decade.

“For fiscal year 2019 we had our trade balance at $4.6 billion which was the lowest since fiscal year 2006 where we saw our trade balance at $4.5 billion.”

He says that has declined by more than $38 billion since 2014, but they are projecting a climb from $4.6 billion in 2019 to $7 billion in 2020.

Daugherty says the contributing factors are the increase in projected exports of soybeans, pork and dairy.

“We expect exports to start to outpace the growth of imports relative to fiscal year 2019.”

Daugherty says changing trade relationships with China and other countries have a significant impact on the ag trade surplus.