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Chinese pork prices indicate severity of African swine fever outbreak

The CEO of the Minnesota Pork Producers is watching the price of domestic hogs in China to gauge the devastation of the African swine fever outbreak.

David Preisler says he recently discussed the situation with industry leaders from other states.

“The consensus was that China would start running short later on in the third quarter and then into the fourth, then into next year. And that’s kind of what the futures market is showing. But I’d say the best indicator is going to be the actual hog price in China.”

He tells Brownfield if prices climb to levels that cover Chinese tariffs, there’s quite a bit of opportunity for U.S. pork producers.

Preisler says another wildcard is the worsening ASF outbreak in Vietnam.

“Vietnam has already culled about 10 percent of their hog herd, and that’s climbing. They were also another supplier to China.”

He points out the U.S. does not have full market access to Vietnam.  But Preisler says there’s potential to get more product into that country if prices are high enough.