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FAPRI -MU shows impact of tariffs on soybeans

An analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) shows how much of an impact tariffs have had on U.S. soybeans.

FAPRI-MU Director Pat Westhoff says, not surprisingly, if tariffs had been removed in March, soybean prices would be higher and so would net farm income, “Some of our most interesting results, at least in my mind, is we came up with an estimated impact on U.S. net farm income of about $4 Billion dollars per year, starting in 2020.”

Because of African Swine Fever, demand for soybeans in China has dropped, “China just doesn’t need to have that many soybeans from us anymore. So, this has a big implication for what happens down the road even if we were to get rid of all these trade restrictions tomorrow, we would still have that negative fact in the soybean market for quite some time to come.”

Exports of U.S. soybeans have increased to other markets but Westhoff says that’s not enough to offset the losses to China. Given ASF and other issues, Westhoff says newer estimates would be somewhat different.

Westhoff presented the paper at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association annual meeting in Atlanta.