News

Forecast for exports to China reflects trade war’s impact

The impact of the trade war with China is reflected in the latest export forecast from the USDA.

When the 2018 fiscal year began last October, China was forecast to buy almost 23 billion dollars worth of U.S. ag products. The USDA has now lowered that estimate to 19 billion for 2018. And USDA chief economist Rob Johansson says, if the trade war continues, there will be an even sharper drop in 2019.

“Exports to China falling off to 12 billion dollars, knocking China from our number one export destination to our number five export destination in 2019—with Canada and Mexico, the European Union and Japan being one through four,” Johansson says.

That’s assuming the tariffs continue for the whole year, at current levels, he says.