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Taylor predicts 20 years of wx volatility

Weather volatility will increase and risk management will be the key for growers according to Elywnn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension Climatologist and Agronomist. Taylor says growers should expect greater volatility that impacts crop yields, “I think we’re really in for a 20 year period – an additional twenty, 25 years total – of high volatility…some yields half of what the high yields are. And, this will become a more common thing. It’s not every other year but it’s a bad year happening occasionally.”  And, Taylor adds that there will be a great year happening occasionally and maybe half of those years will be “in between” weather-wise.

Taylor tells Brownfield that farmers are able to manage that risk on a yearly basis. So what does the year ahead look like?

“There is some hint that there’s a La Nina in the making. If it is here in a timely manner or an untimely, depending how you look at it, then it would put us below a trend line yield – 70% chance of that happening – with prices being HIGHER on grain rather than LOWER.”

Taylor spoke to farmers about weather volatility and risk management at the Missouri Farm Bureau Commodity Conference earlier this week.

Interview with Elwynn Taylor (5:00 mp3)