News

USDA lowers milk production, price expectations

 

The USDA has lowered its 2017 milk outlook slightly because of slower fourth quarter growth in per cow production. Fat basis trade projections were unchanged from November, but skim basis exports were higher, with the USDA expecting an increase in global whey sales. Price estimates for all milk, Class III, and Class IV were down on the month with the component prices steady to lower.

2017 U.S. milk production is seen at 215.7 billion pounds, down 100 million from a month ago, with an average all milk price of $17.60 to $17.70 per hundredweight, compared to $17.65 to $17.75 a month ago. Class III is projected at $16.15 to $16.25, steady with November, and Class IV is expected to be between $15.05 to $15.25, compared to $15.10 to $15.30 last month. Skim basis exports were raised 200 million pounds to 40.1 billion. Fat basis ending stocks are pegged at 13.6 billion pounds and skim basis ending stocks are expected to be 12.6 billion.

The average annual price for cheese is estimated at $1.63 to $1.64 per pound, unchanged on the month, with butter at $2.315 to $2.345, compared to $2.325 to $2.355 a month ago. Dry whey is projected at $.855 to $.875, compared to $.86 to $.88 in November, and dry whey is pegged at $.44 to $.45, steady with last month.