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USDA surprises with a larger-than-expected U.S. corn crop

Grain market analysts say they were surprised USDA raised the size of the 2023 U.S. corn crop with yields increasing almost 2.5 bushels an acre.

Richard Brock with Brock Associates says “in more than 45 years in the business, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a change in the January crop report.”

USDA says the average yield for U.S. corn was a record at 177.3 bushels an acre. Large increases in yield were noted in few states including Kentucky, Arkansas and Indiana while there were slight increases in other states, like Iowa. Total corn production was at 15.3 billion bushels.

Brock says the larger than expected corn crop put the grain markets in a tailspin on Friday. Total Farm Marketing Senior Market Advisor Naomi Blohm says the corn market remains oversold.

“From a technical perspective, when March corn hit down to the $4.41 area to the low, there was a head and shoulders technical sell objective to the downside, we hit it.”

Blohm says she isn’t expecting corn prices to move much lower and this information sets the tone for the markets moving forward. Brock says the next opportunity for good corn sales might not happen until March or April.

“There might be some short-term bounces in here, but you never fight the trend in the market and this one is well established in all three of the grains: corn, soybeans and wheat,” says Brock. “Cotton looks more positive, but when it comes to corn, soybeans and wheat, I’d say this is a classic bear market after a major bull market.”

USDA’s next supply demand report will be released on February 8.