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USDA upland cotton estimate higher, rice lower
The USDA has increased expectations for this year’s upland cotton crop, while cutting the outlook for rice.
The 2026 upland cotton crop is now pegged at 13.059 million bales, rising 250,000 from September but falling 433,000 from 2025, both due to yield differences. The 2026 yield is seen at 781 pounds per acre, compared to 766 a month ago and 842 for 2025, with harvested area at 8.028 million acres this year, compared to 7.689 million last year.
Rice is projected at 157.734 million hundredweight, a decrease of 446,000 on the month on a decline in yield and a drop 48.973 million on the year because of lower acreage. Currently, the USDA has the 2026 yield at 7,668 pounds per acre on harvested area of 2.057 million acres, compared to the year ago totals of 7,544 pounds and 2.74 million acres, respectively.
The numbers are subject to change, with harvest ongoing.
The USDA’s U.S. ending stocks guess for cotton was up 200,000 bales from last month at 3.8 million and rice was down 400,000 hundredweight to 40 million following those production changes. For upland cotton, the average estimated 2026/27 farm price is $.77 per pound, compared to $.78 in September and $.622 for 2025/26. For rice, the average estimated 2026/27 farm price is $15.20 per hundredweight, compared to $14.90 last month and $12.40 last marketing year.
Globally, the USDA made minor month-to-month balance sheet adjustments for both crops.
The 2026/27 marketing year for cotton and rice got underway August 1st.
The USDA’s next supply, demand, and production update is out November 10th.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Cotton: 250,000 bales, compared to 256,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,519 pounds per acre, compared to 1,397 a month ago and 1,429 a year ago; Harvested Area: 79,000 acres, compared to 86,000 last year
Rice: 66.45 million hundredweight, compared to 93.449 million in 2025; Average Yield: 7,500 pounds per acre, compared to 7,500 a month ago and 7,480 a year ago; Harvested Area: 886,000 acres, compared to 1.25 million last year
Kansas: Cotton: 90,000 bales, compared to 155,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 561 pounds per acre, compared to 810 a month ago and 966 a year ago; Harvested Area: 77,000 acres, steady with last year
Missouri: Cotton: 880,000 bales, compared to 768,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,385 pounds per acre, compared to 1,369 a month ago and 1,084 a year ago; Harvested Area: 305,000 acres, compared to 340,000 last year
Rice: 8.848 million hundredweight, compared to 15.867 million in 2025; Average Yield: 7,900 pounds per acre, compared to 7,900 a month ago and 7,630 a year ago; Harvested Area: 112,000 acres, compared to 208,000 last year
Tennessee: Cotton: 420,000 bales, compared to 352,000 in 2025; Average Yield: 1,061 pounds per acre, compared to 960 a month ago and 889 a year ago; Harvested Area: 190,000 acres, steady with last year
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