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USDA wheat production estimate falls further

The smallest U.S. wheat crop in decades continues to shrink.

The USDA now has combined production at 1.531 billion bushels, 5 million less than July, due to cuts in winter wheat acreage and non-durum spring wheat yield projections. Winter and spring wheat production numbers were both down from a month ago, at 989.89 million and 474.3 million bushels, respectively. If realized, this would be the smallest combined U.S. winter wheat crop since 1963. Combined production for all types of wheat in 2025 was 1.985 billion bushels.

The winter wheat yield guess was up on the month, while farmers planted more spring wheat than what was reported in June.

Winter wheat yield is estimated at 47 bushels per acre, compared to 46.7 a month ago and 54.9 a year ago, with spring wheat at 51.1 bushels per acre, compared to 52.3 last month and 51.7 last year.

For acreage, winter wheat planted area is 31.26 million acres, with harvested area at 21.04 million, while for spring wheat, planted area is 9.61 million acres, with harvested area at 9.285 million acres.

In 2025, winter wheat totaled 1.402 billion bushels on planted area of 33.153 million acres and harvested area of 25.508 million, while spring wheat totaled 496.76 million bushels on planted area of 9.99 million acres and harvested area of 9.61 million.

By class, 2026 U.S. hard red winter production is seen at 462.679 million bushels with soft red winter at 287.185 million and combined white winter at 240.026 million, while hard red spring is expected to account for 433.881 million bushels of that total. In 2025, HRW production was 804.443 million bushels, with SRW at 352.916 million and combined WW at 244.195 million, and HRS production was 458.347 million bushels.

Those acreage adjustments include updated data from the USDA’s Farm Service and Risk Management agencies, and also incorporate satellite, direct observation, and farmer survey data.

Further changes to these numbers will occur in the coming months.

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is nearly over for the year and the spring wheat harvest is just getting underway.

The wheat carryover was trimmed following a slight cut to 2026 production, with no other adjustments to the balance sheet. The 2026/27 average farm price is estimated at $6.20 per bushel, compared to $6 in July and $5.06 for 2025/26.

Globally, wheat production was a little lower with a decrease for the European Union mostly offsetting higher guesses for Canada and Ukraine, with the USDA also making modest downward revisions to exports for Russia and Ukraine due to ongoing war.

The USDA’s next round of production projections is out September 11^th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 2.24 million bushels, compared to 3.99 million in 2025; Average Yield: 56 bushels per acre, compared to 56 a month ago and 57 a year ago; Planted Area: 90,000 acres, compared to 110,000 last year; Harvested Area: 40,000 acres, compared to 70,000 the year before

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 53.68 million bushels, compared to 61.6 million in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD 88 bushels per acre, steady with a month ago and a year ago; Planted Area: 710,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year; Harvested Area: 610,000 acres, compared to 700,000 the year before

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 18 million bushels, compared to 21.36 million in 2025; Average Yield: 80 bushels per acre, compared to 85 a month ago and 89 a year ago; Planted Area: 295,000 acres, compared to 320,000 last year; Harvested Area: 225,000 acres, compared to 240,000 the year before

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 191.4 million bushels, compared to 346.8 million in 2025; Average Yield: 33 bushels per acre, compared to 33 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Planted Area: 6.7 million acres, compared to 7.3 million last year; Harvested Area: 5.8 million acres, compared to 6.8 million the year before

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 23.24 million bushels, compared to 26.73 million in 2025; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 79 a month ago and 81 a year ago; Planted Area: 430,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last yar; Harvested Area: 280,000 acres, compared to 330,000 the year before

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 40.05 million bushels, compared to 44.1 million in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD 90 bushels per acre, steady with a month ago and a year ago; Planted Area: 490,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year; Harvested Area: 445,000 acres, compared to 490,000 the year before

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 68.34 million bushels, compared to 75.9 million in 2025; Average Yield: 67 bushels per acre, compared to 68 a month ago and 68 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.05 million acres, compared to 1.15 million last year; Harvested Area: 1.02 million acres, compared to 1.1 million the year before

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 28.35 million bushels, compared to 36.8 million in 2025; Average Yield: 70 bushels per acre, compared to 69 a month ago and 80 a year ago; Planted Area: 570,000 acres, compared to 640,000 last year; Harvested Area: 405,000 acres, compared to 460,000 the year before

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 17.55 million bushels, compared to 37.835 million in 2025; Average Yield: 30 bushels per acre, compared to 29 a month ago and 47 a year ago; Planted Area: 910,000 acres, compared to 950,000 last year; Harvested Area: 585,000 acres, compared to 805,000 the year before

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 35.275 million bushels, compared to 45.58 million in 2025; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 86 a month ago and 86 a year ago; Planted Area: 520,000 acres, compared to 570,000 last year; Harvested Area: 425,000 acres, compared to 530,000 the year before

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 22.56 million bushels, compared to 31.5 million in 2025; Average Yield: 47 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a month ago and 50 a year ago; Planted Area: 650,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year; Harvested Area: 480,000 acres, compared to 630,000 the year before

Spring Wheat: 24.2 million bushels, compared to 32.64 million in 2025; Average Yield: 44 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a month ago and 51 a year ago; Planted Area: 600,000 acres, compared to 680,000 last year; Harvested Area: 550,000 acres, compared to 640,000 the year before

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 13.475 million bushels, compared to 19.61 million in 2025; Average Yield: 77 bushels per acre, compared to 77 a month ago and 74 a year ago; Planted Area: 255,000 acres, compared to 345,000 last year; Harvested Area: 175,000 acres, compared to 265,000 the year before

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 16.605 million bushels, compared to 19 million in 2025; Average Yield: 81 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a month ago and 76 a year ago; Planted Area: 240,000 acres, compared to 300,000 last year; Harvested Area: 205,000 acres, compared to 250,000 the year before