Market News

Soybeans, corn up on dollar, lower Brazil estimates

Soybeans were higher on commercial and technical buying, in addition to spillover from the outside markets. CONAB lowered its outlook for Brazil’s crop to 115.3 million tons, because of hot, dry weather in key growing areas. That’s less than the USDA’s 117 million tons, but above AgRural’s most recent guess of 112.5 million, with harvest at just over 25%. The trade is also watching this week’s round of negotiations in China. Soybean meal and oil followed beans higher. In the outside markets, during the session, the U.S. dollar index was lower with the Dow and crude oil higher, supported by a tentative budget deal reached in Congress late Monday ahead of current funding running out Friday. The deal, which would fund the government through September, would have to be passed by the House and Senate, before being signed by President Trump, who has indicated he’s “not happy” with the deal, but thinks another shutdown can be avoided.

Corn was higher on commercial and technical buying, along with that outside market influence. CONAB also reduced its outlook for Brazil’s first corn crop, but overall production could still be up sharply, the current guess is 13.6%, because of a large second crop. That said – there’s still a way to go until Brazil’s second crop is fully planted, much less harvested. The latest update has nearly 40% of the crop planted. Unknown destinations bought 122,376 tons of 2018/19 U.S. corn. Ethanol futures were firm. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday. The industry continues to monitor margins, while waiting for more confirmed details on year-round E15 use. Corn also has an eye on U.S. weather, with some expectations for late planting this spring in parts of the Cornbelt.

The wheat complex was mixed, with Chicago and Minneapolis mostly firm on commercial spread activity and Kansas City down modestly. The trade continues to monitor the export market, especially the pace of sales from the Black Sea region. Russia’s Ag Ministry will reportedly create a grain exporter’s union, with the body in place by April. Exports from Russia and Ukraine have moved out at a quicker than expected pace. The complex is also watching winter wheat development conditions in the Plains and Midwest, with many forecasts showing more bitterly cold temperatures, potentially damaging the crop.