2024 looking to be tight for corn farmers

A market analyst expects 2024 to favor farmers who are aggressively managing their risks.

Matt Bennett, at AgMarket.Net, says long-term price projections for corn aren’t encouraging.

“I think you’re gonna have more than enough corn unless you have a major summer weather issue.”  He says, “And if you don’t have a major summer weather issue, I think there’s a decent shot you see $4.00 or below December corn on the board.”

Bennett tells Brownfield those levels are below break evens for most farmers…

“I know a lot of folks have been fairly aggressive in their marketing plans.”  He says, “You know, we’ve been pretty aggressive in our marketing plan and I think we’ve got a lot of our income quantified. But at the same time, you know it’s still going to be a very tough ball game.”

But he says there are ways to manage that risk.

“85% of that spring price of $4.66 is about $3.97, and so your insurance should pick up at APH and give you some really strong coverage from that point lower.”  He says, “The problem is between here and there we have a lot of risk, and so not locking in a floor might be one of the riskier things we could do.”

He says another big U.S. crop, coupled with a trendline or above Brazilian crop, would mean a lot of projected corn on the market this fall. 

The USDA’s next round of supply and demand estimates is out May 10th and CONAB’s updated production outlook for Brazil comes out May 14th.

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