News

Analyst tries to quantify market impact of China tariff threats

A market analyst says it’s difficult to put a dollar figure on how much trade tensions with China are costing farmers.

But Elaine Kub tells Brownfield export figures help bring the economic impact into focus.

“China imports x percent of pork that (the U.S.) exports, and our exports make up about 20 percent of our total pork demand.  So you could back that up and say that $.07 cents out of every dollar in the pork market is due to China’s demand for our pork.  Or some number like that.”

Purdue ag economist Chris Hurt estimates the escalating trade war with China is costing hog farmers $6 to $7 dollars per-head.

Kub says trying to quantify the effect on soybean prices is more difficult.

“Because there’s the competitive mass of whether (China) buys soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, or the United States.  And (China) will have to come and source some soybeans from here, but of course now that would just be an extra tariff put on it.”

One thing Kub says is certain is that all this trade uncertainty is further depressing already low commodity prices.