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China’s ASF may be worse than reported

China’s outbreak of African swine fever could be worse than Chinese officials are letting on. American Farm Bureau economist Michael Nepveux tells Brownfield accuracy is difficult, plus China would rather not say how bad the problem is.

“We’re getting quite a few reports from private companies operating in the areas as well as general news and social media reports that the actual problem is much worse than what China is officially reporting,” Nepveux told Brownfield Ag News Friday, referring to analysis that he authored.

Nepveux cites a private estimate that ASF will take 30 percent of China’s hog herd, which is a lot given the size of that herd.

To provide perspective, “15 to 20 percent of China’s would be the entirety of the U.S. herd,” said Nepveux.

China’s recovery from ASF is expected to be slow because of the number of breeding animals stricken.

“That’s going to affect overall the next several years of pork production in China,” he said.  “It’s going to take China a long time to recover from this, especially with the sows getting hit.”

Because of its ability to ramp up production, Nepveux expects China’s poultry industry to be the first to fill protein needs of Chinese consumers.