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Economist doesn’t expect herd expansion anytime soon

A livestock economist says uncertainty is hindering expansion of the swine herd.

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says producers have been slow to respond to higher prices.  “They don’t know whether if they produce more hogs, if there’s going to be the ability to process those hogs,” he says.  “And to me, we’re really starting to see out of the data this idea that producers are going to sit on the sidelines than traditionally would be the case.”

He tells Brownfield high enough prices will trigger at least some expansion.  But… “Feed costs where they are and other input costs where they are, almost everything is not working in favor of expansion very quickly,” he says. 

Brown says with nearly every major category in the latest Hogs and Pigs report coming in outside the lower end of pre-report estimates, the industry continues to signal contraction.