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Expectations for USDA’s next supply and demand report

Ag experts say they will be closely watching soybean ending stocks projections in the USDA’s upcoming supply and demand estimates report.

Jim Mintert is an ag economist with Purdue University.

“The key factor that people are going to be looking at is what is USDA do to the projected carryover,” he says. “We are so tight on soybeans that the question becomes can we increase exports, and can we pull the carryover down below what USDA had on the last report which was 120 million bushels.”

The average pre-report guess is 117 million bushels.  

Matt Bennett, grain market consultant with Channel Seed, says he doesn’t know how much more bullish the report could get for soybeans.

“You’ve got to ask yourself for instance on soybeans, how much more can we cut as far as carryout goes,” he says. “What are the chances to get a wildly bullish report next week for March. I don’t know on soybeans if there is much of a chance.” 

And he says that’s probably a good thing…”we’re not as bulled up as what we were for the February report in thinking it was going to be a wildly bullish report. That might be a good thing for those that are hoping for stability.”

These comments were made during the virtual 2021 Commodity Classic.