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Latest USDA farm income forecast shows a decline in 2023

The USDA has raised its 2023 projected farm income from its most recent estimate by nearly $10 million.   However, University of Missouri ag economist Scott Brown says, “That’s lower by about $30 billion than the record that we set in 2022 of roughly $183 billion.”

He tells Brownfield livestock cash receipts are expected to decline by $13 billion in 2023 compared to 2022 despite an increase of more than $14 billion in cattle and calf receipts. “To put this in perspective, when you look back at 2014, the last time we talked about record cattle prices,” he says.  “There were cash receipts of $81 billion, so 2023 is $20 billion that record of 2015.”

So why the decline? Brown says the change shows up in a couple of commodities.  “Dairy and swine,” he says.  “Dairy is down $10.5 billion and swine is down $7.2 billion.”

Combined receipts for corn, soybeans, and cotton are expected to drop $14.4 billion, while fruit and nut receipts are expected to increase.  Hay receipts are projected to increase by 8.6 percent because of both higher prices and increased sales.