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Strong El Nino expected to impact global crop production

A senior faculty specialist with the University of Maryland says a shift to a strong El Nino weather pattern is likely to bring impacts to global crop production.

During a recent webinar hosted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Brian Barker says models are predicting this year’s El Nino to be one of the strongest on record.

“Due to the high forecast strength of the current El Nino, I would like to emphasize that stronger El Nino events lead to more predictable, but not usually more severe outcomes for these crop yields.”  He says, “So, the stronger the event, the more likely we are to see these impacts.”

He says the warming of waters in the central Pacific will bring beneficial conditions to some regions, and challenges to others.

“For maize and wheat, mostly we don’t see huge impacts, but for rice production it’s concentrated in Southern hemisphere and Southeast Asia, global rice yields are typically 1 to 1.5 below normal.”  He says, “And conversely, you tend to see global soybean yields about 1 1/2 to 2% above trend.”

Barker says the current El Nino is projected to peak this winter and continue into at least early spring of 2027.