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U.S. wheat production drops

Drought, profitability, and slow demand had a big impact on winter wheat production in 2026.

The USDA says 1.019 billion bushels of winter wheat were harvested this year, dropping 23% from last year, with the average yield of 48.8 bushels per acre and an all-time low for national harvested area at 20.89 million acres, while planted area was 31.2 million acres. In 2025, production was 1.405 billion bushels with an average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre on planted area of 33.248 million acres and harvested area of 25.582 million acres.

By class, U.S. hard red winter production was almost half of the year ago total at 466.434 million bushels and soft red winter production fell by more than 50 million bushels to 253.914 million bushels but combined white winter wheat production was higher at 259.196 million bushels. A year ago, HRW production was 806.326 million bushels, with SRW at 353.273 million bushels and combined WW at 245.804 million bushels.

Spring wheat production should also be significantly below 2025.

The crop is now projected at 449.55 million bushels, a drop of nearly 50 million bushels, on reduced acreage for both planted area, 9.58 million acres, and harvested area, 9.375 million acres, and a dip in yield to 48 bushels per acre. Last year, spring wheat totaled 498 million bushels with an average yield of 51.6 bushels per acre, planted area of 10.04 million bushels and harvested area of 9.655 million acres.

For spring wheat, by class, 2026 production is seen at 416.345 million for hard red spring and 33.205 million for combined hard and soft white spring. The year before, HRS production was 459.759 million bushels and combined WS production was 38.241 million bushels.

Overall, 2026 U.S. wheat production is estimated at 1.534 billion bushels with an average yield of 48.1 bushels per acre on planted area of 42.521 million acres and harvested area of 31.899 million acres, compared to the year ago final of 1.989 billion bushels with an average yield 53.3 bushels per acre on planted area of 45.488 million acres and harvested area of 37.345 million acres.

The USDA’s next look at supply, demand, and production for all major crops is out October 9^th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: Winter Wheat: 2.24 million bushels, compared to 3.99 million in 2025; Average Yield: 56 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a year ago; Planted Area: 90,000 acres, compared to 110,000 last year; Harvested Area: 40,000 acres, compared to 70,000 the year before

Illinois: Winter Wheat: 56.55 million bushels, compared to 61.6 million in 2025; Average Yield: 87 bushels per acre, compared to 88 a year ago; Planted Area: 700,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year; Harvested Area: 650,000 acres, compared to 700,000 the year before

Indiana: Winter Wheat: 19.55 million bushels, compared to 21.36 million in 2025; Average Yield: 85 bushels per acre, compared to 89 a year ago; Planted Area: 295,000 acres, compared to 320,000 last year; Harvested Area: RECORD LOW 230,000 acres, compared to 240,000 the year before

Kansas: Winter Wheat: 200.6 million bushels, compared to 346.8 million in 2025; Average Yield: 34 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a year ago; Planted Area: 6.7 million acres, compared to 7.3 million last year; Harvested Area: 5.9 million acres, compared to 6.8 million the year before

Kentucky: Winter Wheat: 21.32 million bushels, compared to 26.73 million in 2025; Average Yield: 82 bushels per acre, compared to 81 a year ago; Planted Area: 420,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 330,000 the year before

Michigan: Winter Wheat: 38.715 million bushels, compared to 44.1 million in 2025; Average Yield: 87 bushels per acre, compared to 90 a year ago; Planted Area: 490,000 acres, compared to 530,000 last year; Harvested Area: 445,000 acres, compared to 490,000 the year before

Minnesota: Spring Wheat: 63 million bushels, compared to 75.9 million in 2025; Average Yield: 63 bushels per acre, compared to 69 a year ago; Planted Area: 1.03 million acres, compared to 1.15 million last year; Harvested Area: 1 million acres, compared to 1.1 million the year before

Missouri: Winter Wheat: 28.47 million bushels, compared to 36.8 million in 2025; Average Yield: 73 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a year ago; Planted Area: 570,000 acres, compared to 650,000 last year; Harvested Area: 390,000 acres, compared to 460,000 the year before

Nebraska: Winter Wheat: 17.16 million bushels, compared to 37.835 million in 2025; Average Yield: 33 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; Planted Area: 910,000 acres, compared to 950,000 last year; Harvested Area: RECORD LOW 520,000 acres, compared to 805,000 the year before

Ohio: Winter Wheat: 39.01 million bushels, compared to 45.58 million in 2025; Average Yield: 83 bushels per acre, compared to 86 a year ago; Planted Area: 520,000 acres, compared to 570,000 last year; Harvested Area: 470,000 acres, compared to 530,000 the year before

South Dakota: Winter Wheat: 25.97 million bushels, compared to 31.5 million in 2025; Average Yield: 53 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; Planted Area: 640,000 acres, compared to 780,000 last year; Harvested Area: 490,000 acres, compared to 630,000 the year before

Spring Wheat: 26.1 million bushels, compared to 32.64 million in 2025; Average Yield: 45 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a year ago; Planted Area: RECORD LOW 610,000 acres, compared to 680,000 last year; Harvested Area: 580,000 acres, compared to 640,000 the year before

Tennessee: Winter Wheat: 13.475 million bushels, compared to 19.61 million in 2025; Average Yield: 77 bushels per acre, compared to 74 a year ago; Planted Area: 255,000 acres, compared to 345,000 last year; Harvested Area: 175,000 acres, compared to 265,000 the year before

Wisconsin: Winter Wheat: 16.185 million bushels, compared to 19 million in 2025; Average Yield: RECORD HIGH 83 bushels per acre, compared to 76 a year ago; Planted Area: 240,000 acres, compared to 300,000 last year; Harvested Area: 195,000 acres, compared to 250,000 the year before