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USDA cuts corn, soybean production estimates
The USDA’s new corn and soybean production projections came in below pre-report estimates and were down on the month, but both are currently expected to be larger than a year ago. That will depend on several factors, especially August weather, and both corn and soybeans will need trend-line or better yields to meet demand projections and limit further price inflation for end users.
As of August 1st, corn production is expected to be 14.75 billion bushels, up 4% from 2020, with an average yield of 174.6 bushels per acre higher, which would be up 2.6 on the year. In July, the USDA saw the crop at 15.165 billion bushels with an average yield of 179.5 bushels per acre.
Soybeans are seen at 4.339 billion bushels, 5% more than a year ago, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre, 0.2% less than last year. A month ago, the USDA had the crop at 4.405 billion bushels with an average yield of 50.8 bushels per acre.
These numbers are based on producer surveys by the USDA, with the first objective field based estimates out next month.
Wheat production is pegged at 1.697 billion bushels, 3% lower than July and 7% below 2020, with winter wheat at 1.319 billion bushels, an increase of 13% from a year ago, and spring wheat at 343.41 million bushels, a drop of 41%. The winter wheat estimates include 776.855 million bushels of hard red winter, 365.508 million bushels of soft red winter, and 176.372 million bushels of white winter. The average yield for winter wheat is seen at 51.8 bushels per acre, compared to 53.6 a month ago and 50.9 a year ago, with spring wheat expected to average 30.6 bushels per acre, compared to 30.7 last month and 48.6 last year. A month ago, the USDA had all wheat at 1.746 billion bushels, with winter wheat at 1.364 billion bushels, including 805 million bushels of hard red, 362 million bushels of soft red, and 198 million bushels of white, and 345 million bushels of spring wheat.
The USDA lowered U.S. wheat ending stocks, while raising old crop carryout guesses for corn and soybeans, leaving new crop beans unchanged for now and reducing the outlook for new crop corn ending stocks.
Just after the release of the report, corn, soybean, and wheat futures moved higher.
The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out September 10th.
Comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Corn: 129.94 million bushels, compared to 111.320 million in 2020; average yield of 178 bushels per acre, compared to 184 a year ago; harvested area of 730,000 acres, compared to 605,000 last year; Soybeans: 149.45 million bushels, compared to 139 million in 2020; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; harvested area of 3.05 million acres, compared to 2.78 million last year; Winter Wheat: 7.905 million bushels, compared to 4.125 million in 2020; average yield of 51 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a month ago and 55 a year ago; harvested area of 155,000 acres, compared to 75,000 last year
Illinois: Corn: 2.354 billion bushels, compared to 2.131 billion in 2020; record expected average yield of 214 bushels per acre, compared to 192 a year ago; harvested area of 11 million acres, compared to 11.1 million last year; Soybeans: 681.6 million bushels, compared to 604.75 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 64 bushels per acre, compared to 59 a year ago; harvested area of 10.65 million acres, compared to 10.25 million last year; Winter Wheat: 52 million bushels, compared to 35.36 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 80 a month ago and 68 a year ago; harvested area of 650,000 acres, compared to 520,000 last year
Indiana: Corn: 1.019 billion bushels, compared to 981.75 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 194 bushels per acre, compared to 187 a year ago; harvested area of 5.25 million acres, steady with last year; Soybeans: 341.4 million bushels, compared to 329.44 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 58 a year ago; harvested area of 5.69 million acres, compared to 5.68 million last year; Winter Wheat: 24.6 million bushels, compared to 17.5 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 82 bushels per acre, compared to 81 a month ago and 70 a year ago; harvested area of 300,000 acres, compared to 250,000 last year
Iowa: Corn: 2.442 billion bushels, compared to 2.296 billion in 2020; average yield of 193 bushels per acre, compared to 178 a year ago; harvested area of 12.65 million acres, compared to 12.9 million last year; Soybeans: 569.56 million bushels, compared to 493.96 million in 2020; average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 53 a year ago; harvested area of 9.82 million acres, compared to 9.32 million last year
Kansas: Corn: 745.2 million bushels, compared to 766.48 million in 2020; average yield of 138 bushels per acre, compared to 134 a year ago; harvested area of 5.4 million acres, compared to 5.72 million last year; Soybeans: 186.55 million bushels, compared to 190.35 million in 2020; average yield of 41 bushels per acre, compared to 40.5 a year ago; harvested area of 4.55 million acres, compared to 4.7 million last year; Winter Wheat: 379.5 million bushels, compared to 281.25 million a year ago; harvested area of 55 bushels per acre, compared to 55 a month ago and 45 a year ago; harvested area of 6.9 million acres, compared to 6.25 million last year
Michigan: Corn: 319.41 million bushels, compared to 306.46 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 169 bushels per acre, compared to 154 a year ago; harvested area of 1.89 million acres, compared to 1.99 million last year; Soybeans: 109.92 million bushels, compared to 102.93 million in 2020; average yield of 48 bushels per acre, compared to 47 a year ago; harvested area of 2.29 million acres, compared to 2.19 million last year; Winter Wheat: 45.6 million bushels, compared to 33.75 million in 2020; average yield of 80 bushels per acre, compared to 77 a month ago and 75 a year ago; harvested area of 570,000 acres, compared to 450,000 last year
Minnesota: Corn: 1.328 billion bushels, compared to 1.442 billion in 2020; average yield of 166 bushels per acre, compared to 192 a year ago; harvested area of 8 million acres, compared to 7.51 million last year; Soybeans: 328.09 million bushels, compared to 359.17 million in 2020; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 49 a year ago; harvested area of 7.63 million bushels, compared to 7.33 million last year; Spring Wheat: 49.56 million bushels, compared to 72.08 million in 2020; average yield of 42 bushels per acre, compared to 40 a month ago and 53 a year ago; harvested area of 1.18 million acres, compared to 1.36 million last year
Missouri: Corn: 530.1 million bushels, compared to 560.88 million in 2020; average yield of 171 bushels per acre, unchanged from a year ago; harvested area of 3.1 million acres, compared to 3.28 million last year; Soybeans: 292.5 million bushels, compared to 290.5 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a year ago; harvested area of 5.85 million acres, compared to 5.81 million last year; Winter Wheat: 33 million bushels, compared to 22.94 million in 2020; average yield of 66 bushels per acre, compared to 70 a month ago and 62 a year ago; harvested area of 500,000 acres, compared to 370,000 last year
Nebraska: Corn: 1.748 billion bushels, compared to 1.79 billion in 2020; average yield of 186 bushels per acre, compared to 181 a year ago; harvested area of 9.4 million acres, compared to 9.89 million last year; Soybeans: 321 million bushels, compared to 294.12 million in 2020; average yield of 60 bushels per acre, compared to 57 a year ago; harvested area of 5.35 million acres, compared to 5.16 million last year; Winter Wheat: 39.48 million bushels, compared to 34.03 million in 2020; average yield of 47 bushels per acre, compared to 50 a month ago and 41 a year ago; harvested area of 840,000 acres, compared to 830,000 last year
Ohio: Corn: 652.34 million bushels, compared to 564.3 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 193 bushels per acre, compared to 171 a year ago; harvested area of 3.38 million acres, compared to 3.3 million last year; Soybeans: 283.04 million bushels, compared to 262.98 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 58 bushels per acre, compared to 54 a year ago; harvested area of 4.88 million acres, compared to 4.87 million last year; Winter Wheat: 43.74 million bushels, compared to 34.79 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 81 bushels per acre, compared to 82 a month ago and 71 a year ago; harvested area of 540,000 acres, compared to 490,000 last year
South Dakota: Corn: 738.15 million bushels, compared to 729 million in 2020; average yield of 133 bushels per acre, compared to 162 a year ago; harvested area of 5.55 million bushels, compared to 4.5 million last year; Soybeans: 212.55 million bushels, compared to 223.86 million in 2020; average yield of 39 bushels per acre, compared to 45.5 a year ago; harvested area of 5.45 million acres, compared to 4.92 million last year; Winter Wheat: 29.24 million bushels, compared to 34.8 million in 2020; average yield of 43 bushels per acre, compared to 44 a month ago and 58 a year ago; harvested area of 680,000 acres, compared to 600,000 last year; Spring Wheat: 16.8 million bushels, compared to 35.72 million in 2020; average yield of 24 bushels per acre, compared to 25 a month ago and 47 a year ago; harvested area of 700,000 acres, compared to 760,000 last year
Tennessee: Corn: 169.45 million bushels, compared to 140.52 million in 2020; average yield of 173 bushels per acre, compared to 170 a year ago; harvested area of 980,000 acres, compared to 825,000 last year; Soybeans: 79.38 million bushels, compared to 81 million in 2020; average yield of 49 bushels, compared to 50 a year ago; harvested area of 1.62 million acres, steady with last year; Winter Wheat: 23.68 million bushels, compared to 13.57 million in 2020; record expected average yield of 74 bushels per acre, compared to 74 a month ago and 59 a year ago; harvested area of 320,000 acres, compared to 230,000 last year
Wisconsin: Corn: 484.3 million bushels, compared to 516.78 million in 2020; average yield of 167 bushels per acre, compared to 174 a year ago; harvested area of 2.9 million acres, compared to 2.97 million last year; Soybeans: 106.33 million bushels, compared to 100.47 million in 2020; average yield of 49 bushels per acre, compared to 51 a year ago; harvested area of 2.17 million acres, compared to 1.97 million last year; Winter Wheat: 18.24 million bushels, compared to 8.625 million in 2020; average yield of 76 bushels per acre, compared to 71 a month ago and 69 a year ago; harvested area of 240,000 acres, compared to 125,000 last year
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