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USDA cuts cotton crop guess
The USDA has slashed its 2020 U.S. cotton production outlook.
As of December 1st, domestic upland cotton production is seen at 15.395 million bales, 1.14 million bales less than in November, primarily because of drought or near drought conditions in parts of Texas, lowering that state’s production estimate by about 900,000 bales.
U.S. cotton ending stocks were down on the month because of that lower production guess, along with a slight increase in exports.
U.S. rice ending stocks were raised more than a million hundredweight to almost 51 million with lower imports canceled out by a reduction in exports.
World cotton ending stocks were also down on the month on lower global production and increased export and domestic demand, while world rice ending stocks were modestly lower, mainly on increased export demand.
The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out January 12th.
Upland cotton comparisons for Brownfield states:
Arkansas: Cotton: 1.3 million bales, compared to 1.506 million in 2019; average yield of 1,200 pounds per acre, compared to 1,200 a month ago and 1,185 a year ago; harvested area of 520,000 acres, compared to 610,000 last year
Missouri: Cotton: 740,000 bales, compared to 915,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,238 pounds per acre, compared to 1,146 a month ago and 1,193 a year ago; harvested area of 287,000 acres, compared to 368,000 last year
Tennessee: Cotton: 680,000 bales, compared to 960,000 in 2019; average yield of 1,187 pounds per acre, compared to 1,117 a month ago and 1,138 a year ago; harvested area of 275,000 acres, compared to 405,000 last year
Breakdown of cotton and rice supply and demand tables:
2020/21 U.S. rice ending stocks are seen at 50.8 million hundredweight, compared to 49.5 million in November and 28.7 million for 2019/20. The USDA cut imports 800,000 hundredweight to 36.5 million, leaving the total supply at 291.3 million. Exports were reduced 2 million hundredweight to 95 million, for total use of 240.5 million hundredweight. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $13.10 per hundredweight, compared to $12.90 a month ago and $13.50 last marketing year.
2020/21 U.S. cotton ending stocks are estimated at 5.7 million bales, compared to 7.2 million last month and 7.25 million last marketing year. After cutting production by 1.14 million bales to 15.95 million, the total supply is seen at 23.2 million bales. Exports were raised 400,000 bales to 15 million, taking total use to 17.5 million, while unaccounted stocks were zeroed out. The average 2020/21 farm price is estimated at $.65 per pound, compared to $.64 in November and $.596 for 2019/20.
2020/21 world rice ending stocks are projected at 178.98 million tons, compared to 179.78 million a month ago, with production at 501.2 million tons, compared to 501.11 million in the previous report. Domestic use is pegged at 500.44 million tons, compared to 499.24 million in November, with exports of 45.29 million tons, compared to 44.3 million last month.
2020/21 world cotton ending stocks are expected to be 97.52 million bales, compared to 101.44 million last month, with production of 113.9 million bales, compared to 116.1 million in the prior update. The USDA cut production guesses for the U.S., Australia, and Pakistan, cancelling out increases for some minor producers. Domestic use is seen at 115.63 million bales, compared to 114.05 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 43.21 million bales, compared to 42.87 million in November. The USDA raised the import guess for China by 500,000 bales to 10 million.
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