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USDA lowers export forecast for 2019

The USDA has reduced its expectations for exports next year mostly because of decreased demand for soybeans.

“We’ve seen the tariffs on soybeans effect our ability to export.”

Chief Economist Rob Johansson says the $141.5 billion estimate is down $2 billion from last year and $3 billion from last quarter.

Soybean exports are forecast down about $1 billion from 2018.  “We’ve also seen record soybean production in the U.S. this year and that has continued to push soybean prices lower than what we had at our earlier estimate time.”

USDA expects cotton exports to also be lower while wheat could see a $2.5 billion increase.  Declines in poultry and dairy product exports offset increases in beef and pork products.

Import projections have be left mostly unchanged which means the trade surplus of $14.5 billion is the lowest in 12 years.