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USDA lowers red meat, turkey production, raises chicken

The USDA has decreased its 2018 red meat production estimates. The department lowered outlook for beef to 27.094 billion pounds because of slower third quarter marketings and lower average carcass weights, while the pork estimate was down from July at 26.710 billion because of an expected slower slaughter pace during the second half of the year. On the demand side of the ledger, the USDA lowered beef imports while raising exports, and lowered both imports and exports on pork. The per capita pork and beef consumption outlooks were down fractionally at 57.7 and 51.7 pounds, respectively. The annual average price for steers was steady to $1 higher at $115 to $117 per hundredweight and barrows and gilts were $1 lower at $44 to $45.

The USDA raised its annual production projection for chicken, while lowering the outlook on turkey. Month to month, the USDA raised the estimate for broiler chickens by more than 100 million pounds to 42.615 billion pounds because of a higher rate of second quarter production, along with early third quarter hatchery and weight data. Turkey production was down slightly at 5.939 billion pounds because of June production numbers. Exports were below July’s projections, but the USDA did also increase the per capita consumption expectations to 92.7 pounds for broilers and 16.3 pounds for turkey. The average 2018 price for broilers is now $.99 to $1.01 per pound and turkeys are seen at $.81 to $.83.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out September 12th.