News

USDA raises U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks estimates

The USDA raised its domestic ending stocks projections for corn and wheat, while tightening the balance sheet for soybeans slightly.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are now seen at 2.035 billion bushels, up 200 million from March, because of reduced demand expectations for exports, ethanol, and feed use. Wheat is pegged at 1.087 billion bushels, an increase of more than 30 million on the month, primarily on a lower export demand estimate. Soybeans are currently expected to end the marketing year at 895 million bushels, 5 million lower than last month, with a lower import guess cancelling out a higher seed use figure, but exports were steady.

Globally, the USDA raised corn production and export estimates for Argentina and Brazil, while leaving Argentina’s bean crop unchanged and increasing the projection for Brazil. China’s soybean import estimate was steady with March.

The current U.S. marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat, the end of August for corn and soybeans, and the end of September for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand numbers is out May 10th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are estimated at 1.087 billion bushels, compared to 1.055 billion in March and 1.099 billion for 2017/18. USDA lowered seed use 1 million to 62 million bushels and reduced feed & residual use 10 million bushels to 70 million for domestic use of 1.097 billion bushels, while cutting exports 20 million bushels to 945 million, leaving total use at 2.042 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $5.15 to $5.25 per bushel, compared to $5.10 to $5.20 a month ago and $4.72 in the previous marketing year.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 2.035 billion bushels, compared to 1.835 billion last month and 2.140 billion last marketing year. Feed & residual use was lowered 75 million bushels to 5.3 billion and ethanol was reduced another 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, putting domestic use at 12.265 billion bushels, and exports were trimmed by 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion, for total use of 14.565 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.40 to $3.70 per bushel, compared to $3.35 to $3.75 in March and $3.36 for 2017/18.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 895 million bushels, compared to 900 million a month ago and 438 million the marketing year prior. The USDA reduced imports 3 million bushels to 17 million, leaving total supply at 4.999 billion bushels. See use was raised 2 million bushels to 98 million for total use of 4.104 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $8.35 to $8.85 per bushel, compared to $8.10 to $9.10 last month and $9.33 last marketing year.

For 2018/19 soybean products, USDA left soybean oil production unchanged at 24.570 billion pounds, raised biodiesel use to 8.35 billion, and left exports at 2.25 billion pounds. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $.28 to $.30 per pound, compared to $.285 to $.315 in March and $.3004 in 2017/18. For soybean meal, production was lowered to 49.097 million short tons and exports were steady at 13.75 million. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $305 to $325 per short ton, compared to $295 to $335 a month ago and $345.02 in the previous marketing year.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are pegged at 275.61 million tons, compared to 270.53 million last month. Global production was down slightly, with modest reduction for selected Middle Eastern nations cancelling out minor increases for Ukraine and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is seen at 439.53 million tons, compared to 142.07 million in March, with exports of 178.46 million tons, compared to 178.91 million a month ago.

2018/19 world corn ending stocks are projected at 314.01 million tons, compared to 305.53 million in March. World production was hiked more than 6 million tons to 1.107 billion, with increased outlooks for Argentina, Brazil, the European Union, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, southeast Asia, and Ukraine. Domestic feed use is estimated at 703.51 million tons, compared to 702.95 million a month ago, and exports are expected to be 168.15 million tons, compared to 166.96 million last month. The USDA raised export guesses for Argentina and Brazil, while reducing the figure for South Africa.

2018/19 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 107.36 million tons, compared to 107.17 million a month ago. World production was 500,000 tons higher at 360.58 million on an increase for Brazil cancelling out a slight decrease for Japan. Domestic crush use is seen at 303.79 million tons, compared to 303.85 million in last month, and exports are pegged at 154.33 million tons, compared to 154.20 million in March. The UDSA left export projections unchanged for Argentina and Brazil. Imports by China were steady at 88 million tons.