USDA reduces 2023 upland cotton guess

The USDA has lowered its expectations for the 2023 U.S. cotton crop.

Upland cotton production is now estimated at 12.445 million bales, a decline 2% from November, with an average yield of 758 pounds per acre, 18 below a month ago and no changes to harvested area at 7.88 million acres.

That projected 2023 total is 10% below a year ago with production dragged down by ongoing drought in some key states impacting yields, especially Texas, the nation’s largest cotton producer. The 2022 total was 13.998 million bales with an average yield of 942 pounds per acre and harvested area of 7.132 million acres.

Upland cotton ginnings as of December 1st were 8,324,450 bales, down from the 9,053,000 on December 1st, 2022 due to the smaller crop.

U.S. cotton ending stocks were 100,000 bales lower at 3.1 million bales on that smaller crop guess, which canceled out a lower domestic use estimate.

Domestic rice ending stocks were up 1 million hundredweight at 41.9 million following an increase to the import projection.

Globally, the biggest change for cotton was that lower U.S. production guess, with overall imports down slightly, but up for the biggest buyer, China, while world rice production was modestly higher.

The U.S. marketing year for cotton and rice started August 1st.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out January 12th.

Comparisons for Brownfield states:

Arkansas: 1.41 million bales, compared to 1.548 million in 2022; Average Yield: Record 1,340 pounds per acre, compared to 1,236 a month ago and 1,179 a year ago; Harvested Area: 505,000 acres, compared to 630,000 last year; Ginnings: 1,254,700 bales, compared to 1,123,050 the prior year

Kansas: 160,000 bales, compared to 166,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 873 pounds per acre, compared to 900 a month ago and 577 a year ago; Harvested Area: 88,000 acres, compared to 138,000 last year; Ginnings: Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations

Missouri: 910,000 bales, compared to 878,000 in 2022; Average Yield: 1,324 pounds per acre, compared to 1,229 a month ago and 1,240 a year ago; Harvested Area: 330,000 acres, compared to 340,000 last year; Ginnings 586,200 bales, compared to 460,900 the prior year

Tennessee: 670,000 bales, compared to 713,000 in 2022; Average Yield: Record 1,237 pounds per acre, compared to 1,182 a month ago and 1,053 a year ago; Harvested Area: 260,000 acres, compared to 325,000 last year; Ginnings: 525,650 bales, compared to 522,600 the prior year

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