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USDA sees record corn crop, bigger old crop carryouts

The USDA expects record corn production in 2020, assuming normal weather conditions. The department left planted area unchanged at 97 million acres and sees the average yield at 178.5 bushels per acre, for a crop of 15.995 billion bushels.

Old crop ending stocks were up modestly on the month with bigger exports and feed mostly cancelling out reduced outlooks for food and ethanol use while new crop ending stocks could top 3.3 billion bushels on that expected record crop, even with projected demand increases.

U.S. soybean production this year is expected to be 4.125 billion bushels, also assuming normal weather during the growing season. Old crop ending stocks were up on the month because of a lower export estimate, while new crop stocks are seen at 405 million bushels, with larger production mostly canceled out by better demand.

Old crop wheat ending stocks were modestly higher than last month on a reduced guess for exports and new crop stocks are pegged at 909 million bushels because of a smaller crop and a mixed demand outlook.

The USDA is projecting bigger world corn, soybean, and wheat crops in the 2020/21 marketing year. Global corn production is expected to be record large with an all-time high for the U.S. crop, while the world soybean production outlook is supported by forecasts for increased production in the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil, and the global wheat crop is expected to grow with higher projections for several export competitors cancelling out a smaller U.S. crop. Chinese soybean demand is also expected to increase in the new marketing year.

For old crop, the USDA cut soybean production in Argentina and Brazil, but left corn unchanged in both countries, and raised the soybean import guess for China.

The 2020/21 marketing year gets underway June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply, demand, and production numbers is out June 11th.

Breakdown of selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 978 million bushels, compared to 970 million in April and 1.08 billion in 2018/19. The USDA raised food use 7 million bushels to 962 million, taking domestic use to 1.157 billion bushels, while lowering exports 15 million to 970 million bushels, leaving total use at 2.127 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.60 per bushel, unchanged on the month and below the average of $5.16 in the previous marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 909 million bushels, with production at 1.866 billion and imports of 140 million bushels, for a total supply of 2.984 billion. Food use is pegged at 964 million bushels, with seed at 61 million and feed and residual use of 100 million bushels, for domestic demand of 1.125 billion bushels. With exports of 950 million bushels, total use is estimated at 2.075 billion bushels and the average farm price is projected at $4.60 per bushel.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are expected to be 2.098 billion bushels, compared to 2.092 billion last month and 2.221 billion last marketing year. The USDA lowered the 2019 production total 29 million bushels to 13.663 billion on fractionally lower harvested area and average yield numbers following the recent acreage resurvey, leaving the supply at 15.928 billion bushels. Feed and residual use was up 25 million bushels on the month at 5.7 billion, while food, seed, and industrial use and ethanol use were cut by 110 million and 100 million bushels, respectively, leaving domestic use at 12.055 billion. Exports were raised 50 million bushels to 1.775 billion for total use of 13.830 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel, unchanged from April and about steady with the 2018/19 average of $3.61.

2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 3.318 billion bushels. Production is expected to be a record 15.995 billion bushels, which along with the higher carryover and imports of 25 million, has the total supply at 18.118 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is estimated at 6.05 billion bushels, with food, seed, and industrial use at 6.6 billion and ethanol use at 5.2 billion bushels, for domestic demand of 12.65 billion bushels, and exports of 2.15 billion, for total use of 14.8 billion bushels. The average farm price is estimated at $3.20 per bushel.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 580 million bushels, compared to 480 million a month ago and 909 million the prior marketing year. The USDA lowered 2019 production by 1 million bushels for a crop of 3.557 billion, putting the total supply at 4.481 billion bushels. Exports were cut 100 million bushels to 1.675 billion and residual use was reduced by 1 million bushels to 4 million, for total use of 3.901 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $8.50 per bushel, compared to $8.65 last month and $8.48 last marketing year.

2020/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 405 million bushels. Production is seen at 4.125 billion bushels, which with the 2019/20 carryover and imports of 15 million bushels puts supply at 4.720 billion bushels. Crush demand is expected to be 2.13 billion bushels, with exports of 2.05 billion, seed use of 100 million, and a residual of 35 million, puts total use at 4.315 billion bushels. The 2020/21 average farm price is estimated at $8.20 per bushel.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are estimated at 295.12 million tons, up about 8 million from last month, with a slight increase in the world production figure following upward revisions for the European Union and Japan against a slight reduction for the Middle East. Domestic feed use is pegged at 143.38 million tons, compared to 144.26 million in April, with exports of 183.4 million tons, compared to 182.71 million a month ago on an increased guess for the E.U.

2020/21 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 310.12 million tons, with production of 768.49 million, domestic feed use of 137.47 million tons, and exports of 187.98 million tons.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are projected at 314.73 million tons, compared to 303.17 in April, primarily on a jump in the supply for China. World production was up 1.73 million tons to 1.114.75 billion, even with a modest reduction in the projections for the U.S., Canada, and South Korea. Domestic feed use is pegged at 704.51 million tons, compared to 709.28 million last month, and exports are expected to be 169.34 million tons, compared to 165.97 million a month ago on increased outlooks for Argentina, the European Union, and Canada.

2020/21 world corn production is expected to be a record large 1.187 billion tons, with domestic feed use of 729.02 million tons and exports of 182.25 million, for ending stocks of 339.62 million tons.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 100.27 million tons, compared to 100.45 million a month ago. Global production was down less than 2 million tons on the month at 336.11 million with reduced expectations for the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil. Domestic crush use is seen at 302.04 million tons, compared to 302.84 million last month, with exports of 153.98 million tons, compared to 151.50 million in April. The USDA lowered the export guess for Argentina, but that was more than canceled out by an increase in Brazil, and the department raised the import estimate for China.

2020/21 world soybean production is projected at 362.76 million tons, with domestic crush use of 312.8 million, exports of 161.93 million tons, and ending stocks of 98.39 million.